M&S Shares: Worth Buying? Price Forecast & Analysis

M&S shares have swung between panic and optimism—dropping 16% in 2025 before recovering most of those losses, while analysts now coalesce around a Buy consensus targeting 440p. For investors deciding whether to hold, sell, or add, the valuation metrics and recovery timeline make this a genuinely contested case.

Ticker: MKS:LSE · Exchange: London Stock Exchange · Recent Movement: Down 16% to below £4 · Dividend Source: DividendMax · Official Site: corporate.marksandspencer.com

The key metrics below reflect the latest available data from financial platforms tracking M&S (LSE: MKS) performance.

Are M&S shares worth buying?

The analyst consensus on M&S is decidedly bullish — 16 brokers (13 Buy, 3 Hold, 1 Sell) point to an average 12-month target of 426.77p, which represents meaningful upside from recent levels. Jefferies reaffirmed its Buy rating with a 440p price target in March 2026, noting the stock remains undervalued relative to its growth prospects.

Current valuation factors

M&S trades at a forward P/E of 10.7 for FY27, significantly below the FTSE 100 average and well below peer Tesco’s P/E of 14. That discount looks increasingly hard to justify given the recovery trajectory. The PEG ratio of 0.36 suggests the market is underpricing the earnings growth story — typically a PEG below 1 indicates potential undervaluation.

• Forward P/E: 10.7 vs Tesco 14 — M&S trades at a 24% discount
• PEG ratio: 0.36 — below the 1.0 threshold that typically signals fair value
• EPS growth forecast FY27: 45.68% year-over-year

The implication: value-conscious investors buying at current levels could see substantial gains if M&S delivers on its earnings recovery forecast.

Risks and opportunities

The April 2025 cyberattack created a significant but reportedly temporary headwind — FY26 earnings are forecast 25% lower as a result. However, the market appears to be looking through this dip, pricing in the FY27 recovery to 34.1p EPS. The Ocado joint venture continues to drive strong online grocery performance, with Christmas 2025 showing 25% growth from that channel.

What is the prediction for M&S share price?

Multiple analyst targets paint a picture of meaningful upside. The consensus median sits at 427.43p, though sources vary slightly: Investors Chronicle reports a 435.50p median from 14 analysts, while TipRanks calculates a 414.00p average. Jefferies sits at the bullish end with a 440p target.

Analyst price targets

The spread of price targets tells its own story. The low end of 360p still represents solid ground relative to recent history, while the high end of 480p implies nearly 40% upside from current levels. That range reflects genuine uncertainty about both the cyberattack recovery timeline and the durability of the Ocado-driven food growth story.

• Low target: 360p
• Consensus median: 427.43p (Investors Chronicle: 435.50p)
• TipRanks average: 414.00p
• High target: 480p

The pattern: analysts who trust the FY27 recovery narrative target 440p+, while more cautious voices settle for 360-380p.

Short-term vs long-term outlook

Short-term, the stock faces headwinds from cyberattack-related profit reductions. FY26 EPS is expected to land around 23.2p before rebounding sharply to 34.1p in FY27 — a 45% jump that explains much of the analyst enthusiasm. The five-year performance story is already compelling (153% gain vs FTSE 100’s ~50%), suggesting long-term holders have been rewarded.

Why are M&S shares dropping?

The share price fell from 376p at the start of 2025 to 316p at its low point, a decline that turned a £5,000 investment into roughly £4,200 before dividends. The drop wasn’t driven by a single factor — it was a combination of broader market rotation away from defensive retail stocks, concerns about the April cyberattack’s impact, and profit-taking after strong prior gains.

Key reasons for decline

The cyberattack hit operations hard enough that analysts now expect FY26 profits to come in 25% lower than initially forecast. That kind of uncertainty typically weighs on a stock until the financial picture clarifies. Additionally, the fashion and home divisions continue to struggle, with Christmas 2025 showing a 3% decline in that segment — partially offset by food’s 7% growth, but still a concern.

• Cyberattack disruption: FY26 profits forecast 25% lower than pre-attack estimates
• Fashion/home weakness: -3% over Christmas 2025 trading period
• Market rotation: Defensive retail stocks fell out of favour as rates stayed elevated
• Technical factors: 50-day moving average (365.30p) sitting above current price (341.60p)

The catch: short-term traders chasing momentum have been repeatedly burned as the stock swings between recovery optimism and cyberattack anxiety.

Market context

M&S isn’t alone in struggling against macro headwinds, but its situation is more nuanced than a simple market rejection. The stock is up 9% in 2026 alone and has delivered 153% over five years — triple the FTSE 100’s gain over the same period. The recent dip looks more like a pause than a structural problem, particularly given the food division’s resilience.

How often does M&S pay dividends?

M&S pays dividends semi-annually, with distributions typically in January and July. The most recent interim dividend of 1.2p per share was declared November 5, 2025, with an ex-date of November 28, 2025, and payment on January 9, 2026. The next dividend on deck is GBX2.6, with an ex-date of May 29, 2026, and payment scheduled for July 3, 2026.

Payment schedule

The dividend calendar has two key dates each year for most shareholders — the interim (usually November/January) and the final (typically May/July). Investors holding through the ex-dividend date receive the payment approximately six weeks later.

• Interim dividend: declared November, ex-date typically late November, paid January
• Final dividend: declared May, ex-date typically late May, paid July

What this means: income investors can set calendar reminders for late May and late November to capture both distributions.

Recent history

The 2025 total dividend came to £0.04 per share, up 20% year-over-year from 2024’s £0.03. Analysts expect 2026 to bring a 25% increase to £0.05 per share. The trailing twelve-month yield sits around 1.03-1.08%, with Fidelity’s 2026 forecast yield at 0.96%.

Is M&S a good long-term investment?

The long-term story is complicated. On one hand, M&S has outperformed dramatically — 153% over five years versus the FTSE 100’s roughly 50% gain. The Ocado partnership has transformed its online offering, food sales are growing, and the valuation looks reasonable on forward metrics. On the other hand, the fashion business remains structurally challenged, the cyberattack exposed operational vulnerabilities, and dividend growth has been stagnant for years.

Growth prospects

The food business is the engine of growth. Christmas 2025 trading showed food sales up 7%, with the Ocado JV adding another 25% to joint venture revenue. That’s the division to watch — if food continues to gain market share, the bull case strengthens considerably. Fashion and home, meanwhile, remain drag factors.

• Food sales +7% YoY (Christmas 2025)
• Ocado JV revenue +25% (Christmas 2025)
• Fashion/home/beauty -3% (Christmas 2025)
• Net debt £2.5bn — manageable relative to market cap

The implication: investors betting on M&S’s future should focus primarily on whether food division momentum continues, not whether fashion turns around.

Historical performance

Five-year holders have done exceptionally well, with the share price tripling since early 2021. The stock has proven resilient through COVID, the cost-of-living crisis, and now a cyberattack. But past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, and the question is whether the next five years offer the same opportunity or whether the easy gains have been made.

For UK investors weighing M&S shares, the decision comes down to one question: do you trust the recovery narrative? The analysts clearly do — 16 of them rate the stock Buy, with targets stretching to 440p. The valuation supports that optimism (forward P/E of 10.7), and the food business is firing on all cylinders. But the cyberattack disruption, stagnant dividends, and fashion headwinds are legitimate concerns that could slow any recovery. Those already holding M&S from lower levels have a wide margin of safety; new buyers should be prepared for volatility as the FY27 recovery narrative plays out.